Can someone help me out with dice probabilities? Math isn’t my strong point.

Can someone help me out with dice probabilities? Math isn’t my strong point.

Can someone help me out with dice probabilities? Math isn’t my strong point.

I’m trying to figure out how much a range band shift is worth. In other words, if a move shifts a result up one level (turning a  7-9 into a 10+ for example), what value would you have to add to the 2d6 roll to get a similar result?

With no bonus (roll+0), it looks like a player has a 58% chance of getting a 7+, a 16% chance of getting a 10+, and a 3% chance of getting a 12+. With a +3 bonus (roll+3), they have a 97% chance of getting a 7+, a 58% chance of getting a 10+, and a 27% chance of getting a 12+.

So if roll+0 has a 58% chance of getting a 7+ and roll+3 also has a 58% chance of getting a 10+, does that mean a range band shift is roughly worth a +3 bonus? Or is my math wrong?

15 thoughts on “Can someone help me out with dice probabilities? Math isn’t my strong point.”

  5. When I first skimmed this post I thought you were talking about range bands on weapons getting shifted as the benefit from a move. No idea why, but now you’ve got me thinkin.

  6. “Range bands” probably wasn’t the best thing to call them, but I was drawing a blank. 😛

    Most AW-based games cap stats at +3 since it’s such a massive boost. Seeing as how bumping the dice results up a tier (?) is very close to a +3 bonus, I’m realizing how powerful that is.

  9. “Uncertainty Forces have been under steady attack this week by roving Result Bands, which have been spotted in ever-increasing numbers.  Now, holed up in the cliffs above Eigenstate Pass, the UF valiantly continues in their attempts to do nothing decisive.”

  12. Finally got that thing to work. It was making me feel like an idiot. 😛

    Interesting. Rolling 2d6+1 has a slightly higher chance of getting a 7-9 result than a d6+d8 does (72% vs. 69%). But rolling d6+d8 has a slightly higher chance of getting a 10+ than 2d6+1 (31% vs. 28%). So you’re slightly better at being awesome, but slightly worse at being just OK. Weird.

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